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Global vehicle sales will decline as ride-hailing services boom, study says

Global vehicle sales will decline over the next two decades as consumers embrace on-demand ride services such as Uber, according to a study. Annual vehicle sales in the U.S., Europe, China and India will decline over the next 23 years to 54 million in 2040, the study projected. About 80 million vehicles a year are sold currently in those regions. Another finding from the study was that more than 80 percent of the vehicles sold worldwide in 2040 will still use some form of petroleum-fueled combustion engine. According to IHS Markit, all-electric vehicles will account for about 19 percent of sales by 2040. This compares with an estimated 14 percent of production by 2030 in a forecast by Boston Consulting Group on Nov. 2. Plug-in hybrids will account for another 14 percent of sales in 2040, IHS Markit forecast. Cars powered only by gasoline or diesel will make up about 62 percent of new-car sales in the study's four markets, down from 98 percent last year. "Consumers are starting to embrace" the advanced technologies in electric and self-driving vehicles, said Tom De Vleesschauwer, IHS Markit's transport and mobility practice leader. Consumers will take a bigger interest in electric cars as their costs drop, driven by cheaper battery packs. Right now, battery packs costs about $200 per kilowatt hour, Vleesschauwer said. Carmakers need to get costs down to about $100 per kilowatt hour to be competitive with a gasoline-powered car, the study said, forecasting price parity in the 2030s.

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